Even if Winston wins the competition and keeps the New Orleans passing game afloat, Kamara will have a hard time repeating last year's 21 total touchdowns. Walter Payton 5. LaDainian Tomlinson 6. As everyone knows by now, Montgomery faced some of the worst run defenses in the league over that finishing stretch to put up those huge numbers. However, Melvin Gordon III returning is the lynchpin for tepid upside expectations outside of a Gordon injury. I was reading an article the other day about the greatest power backs of all time and Jerome Bettis was third on the list (right behind Jim Brown and Larry Csonka and right ahead of Earl Campbell). Take a chance on a committee back in the same range who might emerge into a starter or become one due to injury. If you're optimistic about the Lions running game, take Williams at a deep discount from Swift's highly aspirational price tag. 31 Unsung Running Backs in NFL History | Stadium Talk The additions of Mike Boone and Javonte Williams haven't done anything to dispel this idea. Therefore, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position. . At times he looked like the future back Detroit has been looking for this century. There's zero appeal here. This should be a fair competition, considering that Miami is changing its scheme this year. He finally received the workhorse role fantasy players have craved. The problem is it never really felt like we stopped moving Edmonds up the board even after the signing of James Conner. The depth behind Ekeler is average, but there are enough players to steal touches. If he is still on the opening day roster, his workload will be usurped by the rookie when the coaching staff trusts him. Thurman Thomas 14. The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. San Francisco 49ers: All-time underrated, overrated players - NFL.com Gordon has always been a runner that needs a large workload to produce fantasy stats. Projecting a fourth-round pick to take over the backfield would be fine if there was evidence that this was happening. Melvin Gordon III, Denver | Consensus Rankings RB29 | Consensus Projections RB28. During the next few weeks, we here at NFL.com will unveil our Most Underrated and Overrated Players of All Time for all 32 teams and allow users to determine their choices as well.. Given Russell Wilson's historical propensity to score rushing touchdowns in goal-line situations, it's hard to get overly excited about Williams, particularly in PPR formats. Myles Gaskin, Miami | Consensus Rankings RB25 | Consensus Projections RB26. Robinson can be successful this year, but he will need luck and to earn the trust of the new coaching staff. Gordon has always been a runner that needs a large workload to produce fantasy stats. Chad Parsons: As much as Taylor is an overt talent and a potentially elite RB1 in a best-case scenario. Gordon's arrow is pointing down for 2021, and he could be marginalized as the season goes on because the team also likes free agent signing Mike Boone. For both Cleveland backs to be values, the team would have to produce vintage New Orleans-level production for its backs, or one of them would have to get injured to allow the other to see an increased workload. USA Today named the most overrated player on every NFL team in 2022 and for the Cleveland Browns, Jadeveon Clowney was given this unwanted distinction. Harris stayed an extra year in college to improve his draft capital, and rightfully so, as the 2020 class was filled with elite running back talent. With an almost entirely new coaching staff, quarterback and receivers, it is difficult to trust that Swift will be worth his asking price. Dillon a lot, and reports from OTAs have been promising. Swift relied heavily on touchdown production for his fantasy numbers. David Johnson, Houston | Consensus Rankings RB39 | Consensus Projections RB47. Ryan Hester: Chubb shares his backfield with a very talented player in Kareem Hunt, and Hunt is the one who gets the lions share of the passing game work. I would probably rank him around 43. On top of these issues, the Texans added Rex Burkhead, Mark Ingram II, and Philip Lindsay to compete for touches. Mike Davis, Atlanta | Consensus Rankings RB24 | Consensus Projections RB23. Jalen Hurts will inevitably take away carries and goal-line rushes from the backfield, capping any true remaining upside Sanders may have been clinging to. Here are the players who received the most votes: And here are all of the payers mentioned and the reasons why. 1 status. Footballguys staff members discuss running backs who are overvalued. Mostert is now 29 years old and has the highest draft position of anyone in this stable of capable running backs. It is also quite possible that Gordon isn't even on the team by the time Week 1 rolls around. I believe it is more accurate to measure a RB by per season averages, because running backs such as Jim Brown did not play long. And just how many touchdowns should we expect from an offense with glaring question marks at quarterback and the worst wide receiver depth chart this side of Detroit? The more problematic issue is that the Texans are a train wreck. He's a workout warrior - I get that, but whether or not he recovers immediately from this injury is yet to be seen, and because there is a doubt, he's someone I am avoiding at nearly all costs. Coach Brian Flores comes from New England, where they liked employing a committee, and now they have come out publicly to say this will, in fact, be a committee in Miami. The notorious "Frankenstein" graphic did him no favors. No thanks. . McKissic on your fantasy squad, but his outlier of a 2020 season is going to cause some to reach for him heading into 2021. Barry Sanders 3. There have been 49 running backs taken among the first 10 picks since 1960, and Byars has the lowest rushing average of the bunch. Then, two players were listed as being the most overrated compared to their draft projection. Overrated David Boston -- WR, 1999-02 Boston was a former first-round pick by the Cardinals who had an epic Pro Bowl /All-Pro season in 2001 when he caught 98 passes for nearly 1,600 yards and. His current draft price is almost his upside. Is the 40 Yard Dash the Most Overrated Test for Running | STACK Chad Parsons: Travis Etienne and Carlos Hyde were both chosen additions by the new Jaguars regime with either Round 1 pedigree (Etienne) or a productive NFL profile (Hyde). While the opportunity is undeniable, it's risky betting on Davis as the answer. While Jacobs is capable of a bell-cow role, McDaniels has a long history of maddening running back usage as the Patriots OC. Now we can extinguish any hopes of Jacobs getting more involved in the passing game. Perhaps the political and social issues depicted in 'The Grapes of Wrath" were too controversial. 24 Overrated RBs. However, I would ask - where is the upside to tilt a league here? The Steelers were 23rd in red zone attempts per game in 2020 and were recently ranked as having the fourth-worst offensive line ahead of the 2021 season by Pro Football Focus. What follows are some of the most notable BackCAST projections for the running back prospects available in the 2022 NFL draft, along with two overrated back based on this model: ESPN + Daniel Jones was one of the most uninspiring quarterbacks in the league last year. That number of targets limited his ceiling, and he was barely a low-end RB2. Jim Brown 2. Tarik Cohen, Chicago | Consensus Rankings RB49 | Consensus Projections RB47. This was largely in line with his previous year's number of 10.7 per game, allowing him to plod his way to an uninspiring RB24 finish. In 2019, his last full season, Cohen averaged 5.8 yards per catch and 4.4 yards per target -- terrible numbers for a third-down back. 2 fantasy back this year is a dubious decision. Gaskin may be the best receiver of the trio, but Ahmed isn't far behind. Pittsburghs front five looks nothing like last years group. Arizona Cardinals: All-time underrated, overrated players But you do have to attribute some of his success to his top 10 run blocking. Jeff Haseley: Clyde Edwards-Helaire has all of the tools and skills to be a successful fantasy back but failing to finish runs in the end zone has slowed his progress. We've seen running backs repeatedly return from severe knee injuries; very seldom do they return the following year and have a memorable fantasy season. Phil Alexander: What makes people so confident the Dolphins backfield is not a committee? Bettis was nothing more than an average RB for a long period of time (13 years). Think about that for a moment. Unfortunately for him, the team replaced the coaching staff that he impressed and signed veteran Carlos Hyde and drafted Travis Etienne in the first round. Johnson himself has acknowledged it, and the backs' usage in the first preseason game indicates frustration for anyone wanting to farm this barren land. There are too many risk factors to comfortably draft Ekeler as a No. McKissic will get passing down work, so Gibson's floor and ceiling will be lower than last year, the only question is how much lower. Overall: 98 and 96. This slideshow lists the most underrated and overrated quarterbacks, running backs and receivers in the NFL, and the choices might shock you. 24 Overrated Running Backs - Footballguys The Top Ten. That role may not disappear completely, but the addition of Gio Bernard is a bad sign for Tampa Bay's intentions with Fournette. Color me skeptical Sanders has a new ceiling for receiving production with Scott and Gainwell passing game-centric options, and Howard could be a goal-line option. His average DVOA of 0.085% would rank him 31st in the NFL in 2009, right behind Rashard Mendenhall. D'Andre Swift, Detroit | Consensus Rankings RB12 | Consensus Projections RB14. He's not a player to build your team around if you pick in the top half of the first round. Single They might be lucky to win three games, which means limited touchdown potential for Johnson and a shortage of run-friendly game scripts. So as we can see, Bettis had about the 9th best run blocking offensive line in the NFL during his career. Jamal Lewis-- RB, 2000-06 There have been seven running backs who have rushed for 2,000 yards in a season, and Jamal Lewis is by far the least memorable of the bunch. After the Robinson selection, head coach Ron Rivera likened the potential Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson Jr combination to the Jonathan Stewart and D'Angelo Williams pairing he used during his Carolina days. At others, he made mistakes and was underused. Jordan McNamara: Fixing your running game by drafting running backs is a losing strategy. The Silence of the Lambs (1991) - Director: Jonathan Demme. Pat Fitzmaurice: First, a hat tip: For a guy who was a nonfactor in Purdue's offense for four years and was mostly a special-teamer in his first four NFL seasons, Mostert turned out to be a pretty good running back. This was largely in line with his previous year's 10.7 per game which allowed him to plod his way to an uninspiring RB24 finish. Edgerrin James 17. Johnson was once a big name at the running back position and is still getting drafted based on that name and past production. 9 out of the 13 years Bettis played in the NFL he averaged less than 4 yards per carry. The Giants offensive line, playcalling, and quarterback play give us no faith that they can help create fantasy overachievers. 5. As a model for other running backs, one of the greatest running backs of all time is a horrible example. DYAR: 96 DVOA: 0.085% His average DYAR of 96 would rank him 24th in the NFL in 2009, right ahead of Laurence Maroney. And free-agent acquisitions Mark Ingram II and Rex Burkhead didnt even play. It all depends on who works best in the new scheme and if the scheme works. This NFL season, which isn't even over yet, 5 running backs have already rushed for more yards and 16 have more touchdowns. Sigmund Bloom: One year after the signing of Gordon indicated a lack of faith in Phillip Lindsay -- that bore out with Lindsay being allowed to leave in free agency this offseason -- the Broncos moved up in the second round to take Javonte Williams, indicating a lack of faith in Gordon. D'Andre Swift, Detroit | Consensus Rankings RB14 | Consensus Projections RB10. Yeah, us, too. This is a major factor in any expectation that Robinson would be fantasy lineup-relevant without an injury to one of the other options, especially beyond the early weeks of the season. The only defense in that group to finish above the bottom quartile in Football Outsiders' rush defense DVOA metric was Green Bay, who allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to enemy running backs last season.